The slowdown is here whether you like it or not!
Official figures released on August 30 showed that India's GDP growth hit a 6-year low. India's GDP grew 5% in April-June 2019 confirming fears of a slowdown. GDP growth was 8% in the same quarter of 2018-19.
GVA which GDP minus taxes, grew 4.9% in Apr-June 2019, compared to 7.7% same period last year and 5.7% the prior quarter.
The situation is grave and anyone following the market is aware of the weak household spending (18 quarter low) and muted corporate investment.
The good news is that this may be the bottom, but the bad news is that fixing such a slowdown may be easier said than done. Taking stock of the situation, the Modi government has unveiled various measures to arrest falling growth, right from rolling back of higher tax surcharge from foreign investors to mega reforms in the public sector banking space.
As investors, we are keen to see the Indian government come with an aggressive plan to counter this lull. The markets are not getting enough clear signs at the moment and that doesn't do good to the investor confidence. Further interest rate cuts and fiscal compromise should be on its way.
We can't predict how long this slowdown will last but one thing is sure, historically every time we have invested in this lull, we have benefitted.
Data will get better soon....but confidence and sentiment will beat this.