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Expect the Unexpected

Expect the unexpected....those of us in the markets for long....always carry this mantra.

How else do you explain a virus present in bats that affects humans via snake meat!! The Coronavirus has shut down many Chinese cities and pushed the Shanghai index down and other markets are following this quite closely. Everyone is hoping that the human toll is limited and markets are hoping that it doesn't become and global emergency. After all, SARS resulted in a loss of 2.5% in GDP for Hong Kong and 0.5% for Singapore!!

Another unexpected run is that of Tesla, which is now worth more than Ford & GM combined...yes...don't tell me you expected that!! So many smart people have been wrong on Tesla....yes...expect the unexpected!!

In the meantime, the IMF updated it's World Economic Outlook stating that India will grow by 4.8% this year expecting GDP to bounce to 6.5% in Fy 2022. Most forecasts believe that the economy is in the process of bottoming out and a bounce is considered good news; something that we have been short of in the recent past.

The budget fixation continues as we enter the last week and all eyes will be on fiscal deficit. Crisis provides great opportunities for reforms...will our FM rise to the occasion?

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